There are many different and often contradictory statements regarding bitcoin predictions in the media. However, one thing is for certain – no matter what you hear, there will be a lot of hype surrounding the upcoming year. After all, the hype started about two months ago. So, what can we expect during the coming year and beyond?
Well, here is one good rule to follow: The more news you are privy to, the more difficult your work will be to make your own decisions. This goes for everything, but it is particularly true with something as monumental as this. For instance, when discussing potential 2018 bitcoin price forecasts, it is not uncommon to hear things such as “we might see a new $2.00 price by 2018.” However, it is also not uncommon to hear things like “we might see a new $3.00 price by 2018.”
As these statements are different from each other, you really need to pay attention. For instance, if someone says that we may see a new $50,000 per coin by 2018, this has a lot of implications. It means that either people are speculating wildly about a new major currency, or they are anticipating an increase in the total value of the virtual currency as it rises.
If you take the words of someone with a higher education degree who is offering $50,000 per ether in late 2018, then they have obviously taken their work very seriously. If, on the other hand, someone says that we may only see a ten dollar increase in the value of ether by 2020, it is safe to assume that they are messing around with numbers. These people are technically challenged and they know that it is pointless to even try to make serious predictions. But if we look at the average word usage in the news, we will find that people seem to be quite excited about some upcoming event. Take a look at the following two headlines:
“The tradingbeast will eat us alive!” – Financial Times (London) There is no explanation as to why this prediction is even made, and if I am wrong here, it should really be removed from the list of predictions. This sentence certainly implies that the tradingbeast will eat the Financial Times alive, and there is no reason to believe anything else. On the other hand, if I were writing about financial markets, I would say that the tradingbeast is going to eat the Financial Times alive, and there are reasons for me to believe that I am right. Therefore, if you read statements like the one above, it would be safe to say that you should stop reading the Financial Times immediately and move on to something else.
“The price predictions are all true, but my target price is not so high!” – Financial Times (London) Another ambiguous prediction. The sentence tries to infer that the target price will be so high that nobody should ever set a price lower than that.
“I expect the price of bitcoins to be over $1 million by next March.” – Former eBay president, Chamath Palihapitiya This statement indicates that Palihapitiya believes that the price could be over one million dollars by next March, but he doesn’t state why. So, we have two different types of predictions here. While it’s possible that Palihapitiya believes that the price could be over one million dollars by next March, there’s no reason to think that he thinks that the price would be over one million dollars by the end of 2018.
“I will make at least one major announcement a week during the first half of 2018 (missed deadlines by the end of 2018).” – Evan Williams A lot of people have been tweeting about Williams’ plan to tweet once a week during the first half of 2018 (the deadline is unknown at the time of this article). It’s entirely possible that Williams will make a major announcement about the future of Twitter during the first half of 2018, but it’s not clear whether or not he’s planning to do this. If so, though, this is an amazing example of how important (and under-covered) the social network can be as an information source for businesses and entrepreneurs